Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· Russia - Second League - Group 3
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Chances of each result: Zenit Penza win 26%, Draw 23%, Rodina Moskva III win 50%.
Zenit Penza host Rodina Moskva III in the Second League - Group 3, Russia.
Our model gives Zenit Penza a 26% chance of winning, a draw 23% and Rodina Moskva III 50%.
The model expects Zenit Penza to score 1.2 goals and Rodina Moskva III 1.9.
Zenit Penza have won 1 of their last 6 league matches; Rodina Moskva III have won 5 of 6.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market. No bookmaker prices yet.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Second League - Group 3, before kick-off.
Zenit Penza sit 12th with 25 points; Rodina Moskva III sit 8th with 40. A gap of 32 in goal difference, in favour of Rodina Moskva III.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shumbrat | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 44 |
| 8 | Rodina Moskva III | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 9 | Avangard Kursk | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 32 |
| 11 | Strogino | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 28 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -23 | 25 |
| 13 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 |
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Zenit Penza at home and Rodina Moskva III away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 4 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 5 | 0.83 | 1 | 4 |
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 | 1.67 | 1 | 1 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 4 |
Zenit Penza at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Rodina Moskva III away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Zenit Penza | Rodina Moskva III |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th | 8th |
| Points per game | 0.96 | 1.54 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 0.50 | 2.33 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.17 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 2 |
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
None reported.
None reported.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| 24 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FK Spartak Tambov | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 63 |
| 2 | Volna Nizhegorodskaya | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 62 |
| 3 | Ryazan | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +32 | 53 |
| 4 | Salyut-Belgorod | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +21 | 49 |
| 5 | Metallurg Lipetsk | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +19 | 48 |
| 6 | Saturn Ramenskoye | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +13 | 48 |
| 7 | Shumbrat | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +11 | 44 |
| 8 | Rodina Moskva III | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +9 | 40 |
| 9 | Avangard Kursk | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Orel | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 29 |
| 11 | Strogino | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -12 | 28 |
| 12 | Zenit Penza | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -23 | 25 |
| 13 | SKA Khabarovsk II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -15 | 24 |
| 14 | Arsenal Tula II | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -27 | 16 |
| 15 | Rotor-2 | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -25 | 15 |
| 16 | Kvant | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -47 | 8 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 12 |
| 7 |
| +5 |
| 12 |
| 2.40 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 15 | 2.50 | 2 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|