Zhenys vs Atyrau prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysisBack to today's picks
· Kazakhstan - Premier League
Zhenys v AtyrauHomevAwayHomevAway
No pick for this match: no market passed our rules.
Our model's chances
Chances of each result: Zhenys win 51%, Draw 28%, Atyrau win 20%.
Zhenys host Atyrau in the Premier League, Kazakhstan.
Our model gives Zhenys a 51% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Atyrau 20%.
The model expects Zhenys to score 1.4 goals and Atyrau 0.7.
Zhenys have won 3 of their last 6 league matches; Atyrau have won 1 of 6.
Top factors
- Zhenys sit 8th with 32 points; Atyrau sit 14th with 23 points.
- Zhenys have taken 6 points from their last 5 matches; Atyrau 3 from 5.
- At home, Zhenys have taken 9 points from their last 3; away, Atyrau have taken 3 from their last 2.
Chances and prices are from our nightly scan before the match. Nothing after that is used.
Key numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
- Zhenys win
- 51% · price 1.74
Yesterday: 4 of 4 picks won. See every pick
Today's picks
Today, Saturday 10 October
Times shown in your time (EDT)
Atyrau win20% · price 4.28 Over 1.5 goals67% · price 1.35 Over 2.5 goals41% · price 2.16 Both teams score46% · price 2.00 Expected goals (our model)Zhenys 1.4, Atyrau 0.7 Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Premier League, before kick-off.
Zhenys sit 8th with 32 points; Atyrau sit 14th with 23. A gap of 4 in goal difference, in favour of Zhenys; Zhenys have played 1 more.
Stored before 7 October 2026: wins, draws, losses and goals were not kept.
- 7th FK Tobol Kostanay34 points from 26 games · goal difference -2
- 8th Zhenys32 points from 26 games · goal difference -6
- 9th Ulytau32 points from 26 games · goal difference -8
- 13th Kaisar24 points from 26 games · goal difference -11
- 14th Atyrau23 points from 25 games · goal difference -10
- 15th Altay23 points from 26 games · goal difference -13
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 32 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 24 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 23 |
Show full tableShow less
- 1st Ordabasy61 points from 26 games · goal difference +33
- 2nd Kairat Almaty57 points from 26 games · goal difference +31
- 3rd FC Astana48 points from 25 games · goal difference +17
- 4th Okzhetpes45 points from 26 games · goal difference +6
- 5th Aktobe42 points from 26 games · goal difference +7
- 6th Yelimay Semey38 points from 25 games · goal difference +2
- 7th FK Tobol Kostanay34 points from 26 games · goal difference -2
- 8th Zhenys32 points from 26 games · goal difference -6
- 9th Ulytau32 points from 26 games · goal difference -8
- 10th Kaspiy29 points from 26 games · goal difference -9
- 11th Irtysh26 points from 25 games · goal difference -8
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostat Okzhetpes18 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Away1–3
WWonv Kyzyl-Zhar12 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Home3–1
LLostat Kairat Almaty9 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Away0–3
LLostat Aktobe5 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Away0–1
WWonv Altay29 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Home1–0
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
WWonv Zhetysu15 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Home4–1
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
LLostv Ordabasy17 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Home0–3
LLostat Kaisar12 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Away0–1
WWonat Kyzyl-Zhar5 Sept 2026 · Premier League · Away1–0
LLostv FC Astana30 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Home2–3
LLostv Okzhetpes16 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Home0–2
Show last 6 matchesShowing 6
DDrewv Aktobe9 Aug 2026 · Premier League · Home1–1
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Zhenys at home and Atyrau away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Zhenys
- Last 5 (5)2 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 5 scored, 8 conceded · 1.20 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Last 10 (6)3 won, 0 drawn, 3 lost · 9 scored, 9 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
- Home, last 5 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
- Home, last 10 (3)3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 2 conceded · 3.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 0
Zhenys| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | 1.20 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 9 | 1.50 | 1 | 2 |
|---|
| Home, last 5 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
| Home, last 10 (3) | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 9 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
|---|
Atyrau
- Last 5 (5)1 won, 0 drawn, 4 lost · 3 scored, 9 conceded · 0.60 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Last 10 (6)1 won, 1 drawn, 4 lost · 4 scored, 10 conceded · 0.67 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 3
- Away, last 5 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
- Away, last 10 (2)1 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost · 1 scored, 1 conceded · 1.50 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Atyrau| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 |
|---|
Zhenys at home: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Atyrau away: Insufficient historical data. Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Zhenys | Atyrau |
|---|
| League position | 8th | 14th |
|---|
| Points per game | 1.23 | 0.92 |
|---|
| Attack: goals per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 0.67 |
|---|
| Defence: conceded per game (last 6 and 6) | 1.50 | 1.67 |
|---|
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
|---|
Stored before 7 October 2026: league matches only.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Showing the top 20 of 26 picks, in kick-off order. 6 more are under Show all.Updating…
Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
GENGenoaLLWDLFIOFiorentinaDWWLL
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
AUGFC AugsburgDLDWWBMUBayern MünchenWWWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
HOF1899 HoffenheimLLWLLHAMHamburger SVWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
PADSC Paderborn 07WWLLDVSTVfB StuttgartWWLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
UBEUnion BerlinWLLLDELVSV ElversbergLDLW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
FMAFSV Mainz 05WWLWDBLEBayer LeverkusenWWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
CHEChelseaLDWLWBOUBournemouthLWDW
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
MIDMiddlesbroughDDWLWWOLWolvesWLWD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
PREPrestonDLLWLMILMillwallDDLL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
RANRangersWWWWWKILKilmarnockDWDD
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
ALAAlavesDLLWWAMAAtletico MadridWWWL
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
GAEGO Ahead EaglesDDDLWSROSparta RotterdamLLDL
Starting later (8)
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
INTInterWDWLWPARParmaWLD
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|
| 1 | Ordabasy | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +33 | 61 |
| 2 | Kairat Almaty | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +31 | 57 |
| 3 | FC Astana | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +17 | 48 |
| 4 | Okzhetpes | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +6 | 45 |
| 5 | Aktobe | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | +7 | 42 |
| 6 | Yelimay Semey | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | +2 | 38 |
| 7 | FK Tobol Kostanay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -2 | 34 |
| 8 | Zhenys | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -6 | 32 |
| 9 | Ulytau | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 32 |
| 10 | Kaspiy | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -9 | 29 |
| 11 | Irtysh | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -8 | 26 |
| 12 | Kyzyl-Zhar | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 25 |
| 13 | Kaisar | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -11 | 24 |
| 14 | Atyrau | 25 | – | – | – | – | – | -10 | 23 |
| 15 | Altay | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -13 | 23 |
| 16 | Zhetysu | 26 | – | – | – | – | – | -18 | 22 |
| Last 10 (6) | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 4 | 0.67 | 1 | 3 |
|---|
| Away, last 5 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
| Away, last 10 (2) | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1.50 | 1 | 1 |
|---|
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
W
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
L
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
W
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
L
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
L
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
D
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
L
L
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RLERB LeipzigLWLLWEFREintracht FrankfurtWDWLD
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
MANManchester UnitedDLLWDTOTTottenhamLLDDL
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
FEYFeyenoordWWLWDAALAZ AlkmaarWLDWW
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
MARMaritimoDLLLDPORFC PortoWWWLW
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
FSIFortuna SittardWWLWWTWETwenteWWWWD
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
AJAAjaxDWWLWNNINEC NijmegenDLLDL
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
RMAReal MadridLWWWLVILVillarrealWWLLL
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysis