Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
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Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 71%
Average price 1.32
· England - Championship
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.24
Each of Burnley's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Fiorentina's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
87%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 93%
Average price 1.03
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of FC Augsburg's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of 1899 Hoffenheim's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
84%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 87%
Average price 1.07
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
3 of VfB Stuttgart's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 82%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Union Berlin's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 84%
Average price 1.11
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of Bayer Leverkusen's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.13
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
Each of Chelsea's last 5 league matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
80%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 79%
Average price 1.18
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Middlesbrough's last 4 home matches had three or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· England - Championship
Each of Millwall's last 8 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Scotland - Premiership
The model expects Rangers to score 1.9 goals and Kilmarnock 0.9.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
77%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 75%
Average price 1.25
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Atletico Madrid's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.09
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of GO Ahead Eagles's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
81%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.08
Last 5 games
· Italy - Serie A
Each of Parma's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
See the full analysisOver 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
89%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 83%
Average price 1.12
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 85%
Average price 1.10
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
78%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 74%
Average price 1.25
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
85%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 86%
Average price 1.09
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
86%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.06
Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match
83%win chance
Our model · Bookmakers: 88%
Average price 1.05
Chances of each result: Watford win 40%, Draw 26%, Burnley win 34%.
Watford host Burnley in the Championship, England.
Our model gives a 77% chance of 2 or more goals in the match. Bookmakers give 75%.
The model expects Watford to score 1.5 goals and Burnley 1.4.
4 of Watford's last 6 league matches had two or more goals; 6 of Burnley's last 6 did.
Chances, prices and the pick are from our nightly scan, published Sat 10 Oct, 01:24 BST. Form, table, head to head and absences as of Sat 10 Oct, 00:30 BST. Nothing after that is used.
Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.
Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.
Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.
Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.
Where the teams sit in the Championship, before kick-off.
Watford sit 20th with 8 points; Burnley sit 24th with 4. A gap of 5 in goal difference, in favour of Watford.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L |
|---|
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.
Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.
Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.
How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.
Record shown: August 2011 to April 2025.
Average goals 2.4 (Watford 1.1, Burnley 1.4). Draws 40%, both teams scored 60%, over 2.5 goals 50%.
In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.
The last 5 and 10 matches, then Watford at home and Burnley away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD |
|---|
Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.
| Measure | Watford | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th | 24th |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10) | 0.90 | 1.00 |
| Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10) | 1.50 | 1.80 |
| Clean sheets | 1 | 1 |
Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.
In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.
Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.
Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.
Evidence pointing the other way.
Last 5 games
· Germany - Bundesliga
Each of RB Leipzig's last 4 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· England - Premier League
4 of Manchester United's last 5 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Feyenoord's last 6 league matches had three or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Portugal - Primeira Liga
Each of FC Porto's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Fortuna Sittard's last 3 home matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Netherlands - Eredivisie
Each of Ajax's last 7 league matches had two or more goals.
Last 5 games
· Spain - La Liga
Each of Villarreal's last 4 league matches had three or more goals.
| GA |
|---|
| GD |
|---|
| Pts |
|---|
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 16 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 |
| PPG |
|---|
| CS |
|---|
| FTS |
|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 11 | 1.10 | 1 | 3 |
| Home, last 5 (5) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 | 1.40 | 0 | 0 |
| Home, last 10 (10) | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 13 | 1.30 | 2 | 3 |
| Sample | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | PPG | CS | FTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3 | 0.60 | 0 | 0 |
| Last 10 (10) | 10 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | 0.60 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 5 (5) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 2 | 0.40 | 1 | 1 |
| Away, last 10 (10) | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 3 | 0.30 | 1 | 2 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 15 |
| 10 |
| +5 |
| 14 |
| 5 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 15 | -7 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 4 |