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Sat 14:45 EDT · France - Ligue 1

Lorient v Paris FC

Over 1.5 goals: 2 or more goals in the match

75%win chance

Our model · Bookmakers: 72%

Average price 1.30

The model expects Lorient to score 1.4 goals and Paris FC 1.3.

Lorient vs Paris FC prediction, Saturday 10 October: chances and analysis

Full analysisKey numbers, the table, form, head to head and more.

Key numbers

Our model's chance for each market, with the bookmakers' average price.

Lorient win: 38% · price 3.22
Draw: 26% · price 3.31
Paris FC win: 35% · price 2.25
Over 1.5 goals: 75% · price 1.30
Over 2.5 goals: 52% · price 1.94
Both teams score: 53% · price 1.72
Expected goals (our model): Lorient 1.4, Paris FC 1.3

Key factors

Context onlyFacts that explain the pick. The model doesn't read them.

Worked out from the stored data, never estimated.

Lorient sit 13th with 5 points; Paris FC sit 3rd with 11 points.
Lorient have taken 5 points from their last 5 matches; Paris FC 11 from 5.
At home, Lorient have taken 7 points from their last 5; away, Paris FC have taken 5 from their last 5.
Head-to-head context: in their last 11 meetings Lorient won 6, Paris FC won 2 and 3 were drawn.
Lorient have 3 players out or doubtful; Paris FC have 1.

League context

Context onlyTable position isn't in the model.

Where the teams sit in the Ligue 1, before kick-off.

Lorient sit 13th with 5 points; Paris FC sit 3rd with 11. A gap of 6 in goal difference, in favour of Paris FC.

2nd Lyon11 points from 6 games · goal difference +7
3rd Paris FC11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
4th Lille10 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
12th Stade Brestois 295 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
13th Lorient5 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
14th Toulouse5 points from 5 games · goal difference -2

#	Team	P	W

Lorient: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

at Le Mans19 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away1–2

v Toulouse12 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home2–2

at Lens5 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away1–0

v Estac Troyes29 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home1–2

Paris FC: recent fixtures

Partly in the modelThe model uses each team's last 6 league matches. Cup and other matches here are context.

Matches finished before this one, newest first, with the score from their side.

v Strasbourg19 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home2–1

v Lyon12 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home0–0

at Marseille6 Sept 2026 · Ligue 1 · Away3–2

v Nice30 Aug 2026 · Ligue 1 · Home3–0

Head to head

Partly in the modelThe model uses league meetings from this season and last, moving expected goals by at most 4%. Older and cup meetings are context.

How these two have done against each other. Recent meetings count for more than old ones.

Meetings: 11
Lorient wins: 6
Draws: 3
Paris FC wins: 2

Record shown: November 2017 to April 2026.

Average goals 2.7 (Lorient 1.7, Paris FC 1.0). Draws 27%, both teams scored 55%, over 2.5 goals 45%.

5 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1Lorient1–1Paris FC

4 Feb 2026 · Coupe de FranceLorient2–0Paris FC

3 Oct 2025 · Ligue 1Paris FC2–0Lorient

8 Mar 2025 · Ligue 2

Form, home and away

In the modelThe model rates each team's home and away records separately.

The last 5 and 10 matches, then Lorient at home and Paris FC away only: a home fixture is read from home matches where there are enough.

Lorient

Last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 5 scored, 6 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Last 10 (10)4 won, 2 drawn, 4 lost · 15 scored, 13 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 1
Home, last 5 (5)2 won, 1 drawn, 2 lost · 9 scored, 7 conceded · 1.40 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 1
Home, last 10 (9)4 won, 2 drawn, 3 lost · 16 scored, 12 conceded · 1.56 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 1

Lorient
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD

Team strength, attack and defence

Context onlyShown for context. The model's own ratings come from goals scored and conceded this season and last.

Measure	Lorient	Paris FC
League position	13th	3rd
Points per game	1.00	2.20
Attack: goals per game (last 10 and 10)	1.50	1.50
Defence: conceded per game (last 10 and 10)	1.30	1.40
Clean sheets	4	4

Schedule and rest

Context onlyRest and fixture congestion aren't in the model.

Lorient: 21 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026).
Paris FC: 21 days since their last match (19 Sept 2026).

Squad availability

In the modelMissing players move the model's expected goals, chiefly a missing top scorer.

Players out or doubtful, as reported the night before.

Lorient

B. Fadiga · out, ankle injury
P. Katseris · out, hamstring injury
N. Mbamba · out, muscle injury

Paris FC

N. Sangui · out, muscle injury

Counter-signals

Context onlyFacts pointing the other way. The model doesn't read them.

Evidence pointing the other way.

Lorient sit below Paris FC in the table (13th against 3rd).
Paris FC have the better recent form: 11 points from 5 against 5 from 5.
Lorient have 3 players out or doubtful, Paris FC 1.

Show full table

1st Monaco13 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
2nd Lyon11 points from 6 games · goal difference +7
3rd Paris FC11 points from 5 games · goal difference +5
4th Lille10 points from 5 games · goal difference +4
5th Rennes10 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
6th Paris Saint Germain8 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
7th Lens7 points from 6 games · goal difference +1
8th Angers7 points from 5 games · goal difference +1
9th Strasbourg7 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
10th Le Mans6 points from 5 games · goal difference 0
11th Auxerre6 points from 5 games · goal difference -5
12th Stade Brestois 295 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
13th Lorient5 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
14th Toulouse5 points from 5 games · goal difference -2
15th Nice5 points from 5 games · goal difference -3
16th Estac Troyes4 points from 5 games · goal difference -7
17th Marseille3 points from 5 games · goal difference -1
18th Le Havre2 points from 5 games · goal difference -3

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	6	3	2	1	11	4	+7	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3

Last 5 (5)	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5	1.00	2	1
Last 10 (10)	10	4	2	4	15	13	+2	14	1.40	4	1
Home, last 5 (5)	5	2	1	2	9	7	+2	7	1.40	1	1
Home, last 10 (9)	9	4	2	3	16	12	+4	14	1.56	2	1

Paris FC

Last 5 (5)3 won, 2 drawn, 0 lost · 8 scored, 3 conceded · 2.20 points a game · 3 clean sheets · failed to score in 2
Last 10 (10)4 won, 4 drawn, 2 lost · 15 scored, 14 conceded · 1.60 points a game · 4 clean sheets · failed to score in 3
Away, last 5 (5)1 won, 2 drawn, 2 lost · 7 scored, 11 conceded · 1.00 points a game · 1 clean sheet · failed to score in 2
Away, last 10 (10)2 won, 5 drawn, 3 lost · 14 scored, 17 conceded · 1.10 points a game · 2 clean sheets · failed to score in 3

Paris FC
Sample	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	PPG	CS	FTS
Last 5 (5)	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11	2.20	3	2
Last 10 (10)	10	4	4	2	15	14	+1	16	1.60	4	3
Away, last 5 (5)	5	1	2	2	7	11	-4	5	1.00	1	2
Away, last 10 (10)	10	2	5	3	14	17	-3	11	1.10	2	3

Lorient v Paris FC

Today's picks

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Starting later (8)

Lorient v Paris FC

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Lorient: recent fixtures

Paris FC: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Lorient

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Lorient

Paris FC

Counter-signals

Paris FC

Lorient v Paris FCLorientHomevParis FCAwayLorientHomevParis FCAway

Today's picks

Starting in 3 to 6 hours (12)

Starting later (8)

Lorient v Paris FCLorientHomevParis FCAwayLorientHomevParis FCAway

Our model's chances

Why this pick

Top factors

Key numbers

Key factors

League context

Lorient: recent fixtures

Paris FC: recent fixtures

Head to head

Form, home and away

Lorient

Team strength, attack and defence

Schedule and rest

Squad availability

Lorient

Paris FC

Counter-signals

Paris FC

Lorient v Paris FC

Lorient v Paris FC